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Truth, Errors, and Lies: Politics and Economics in a Volatile World resources

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3. A Brief History of the World and What We Can Learn from It 429 sylvania Population Studies Center, 1974), http://www.indianngos.com/issue/ population/statistics/statistics9.htm. Maddison, World Economy , p. 28, estimates population growth in the fi 16 percent (with an almost rst millennium as about imperceptible annual rate of 0.02 percent), from about 231 to 268 million. See also Massimo Livi Bacci, A Concise History of World Population (Oxford, U.K.: Blackwell, 2006). Palmer C. Putnam, Energy in the Future (London: Macmil- lan, 1954) estimates world population at 275 million in 1 CE, 295 million in 1000 CE, and 300 million only in 1200 CE. 10 . Our great-great-great-great-grandfather is our grandfather’s grandfa- ther’s grandfather, and our great-great-great-great-grandson is our grandson’s grandson’s grandson. 11 . Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1998). 12 . The indicator for economic growth, in conformity with the methodol- ogy and nomenclature used in International Monetary Fund statistics, in- cludes 15 European countries: Albania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Macedonia, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Turkey. Malta and Turkey are usually not considered to be part of “East-Central Europe.” On the other hand, it does not include the European members of the post-Soviet CIS—Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine—despite the fact that these countries are clearly part of East-Central Europe. 13 . In these estimates, Western Europe means the twelve of the fi fteen highly developed old members of the E.U. that belong to the eurozone. This excludes E.U. members Britain, Sweden, and Denmark, as well as Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and the statistically insignifi cant Andorra, Liechtenstein, Mo- naco, and San Marino. This does not affect the statistical picture, since these countries have GDP rates similar to those of the E.U. members. From 1998 to 2007, the rate of GDP growth in Britain, at 2.4 percent, was 0.6 percent higher than that in the eurozone at the exchange rate. This means that the GDP growth in Western Europe as a whole was about 0.1 percent higher. 14 . See Michael Shermer, “The Chaos of History: On a Chaotic Model that Represents the Role of Contingency and Necessity in Historical Sequences,” Nonlinear Science , 4, 1993, pp. 1–13. 15 . On the meanderings of economic development in Eastern Europe as compared with Western Europe, see Ivan Berend, History Derailed: Central and Eastern Europe in the “Long ” 19th Century (Berkeley: University of Califor- nia Press, 1997), and An Economic History of Twentieth-Century Europe: Eco- nomic Regimes from Laissez-faire to Globalization (Cambridge: Cambridge Uni- versity Press, 2006). 16 . These data are expressed in purchasing power parity at 2007 prices, as- suming that they are about 75 percent higher than the 1990 prices used by

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