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Stalking the Black Swan: Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility Page v (5 of 284)
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contents
Ac know ledg mentsvii
Introduction ix
PART I: Uncertainty
1 Forecasting in Extreme Environments 3
2 Thinking in Probabilities 32
3 The Balance Between Overconfi dence and Underconfi dence,
and the Special Risk of Complex Modeling 55
PART II: Information
4 Fighting Information Overload with Strategy 87
5 Making Decisions in Real Time: How to React to New Information
Without Falling Victim to Cognitive Dissonance 110
6 Mitigating Information Asymmetry 137
PART III: Analysis and Judgment
7 Mapping from Simple Ideas to Complex Analysis 157
8 The Power and Pitfalls of Monte Carlo Modeling 178
9 Judgment 206
Notes 237
Index 257
