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Stalking the Black Swan: Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility Page 257 (273 of 284)
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index
11-standard-deviation surprise, 224 analysis simplifi cation, 164–165
12-standard-deviation surprise, 79–84 antitrust litigation, 159
Asch, Solomon, 15
ABX index, 88–91 asymmetric information. See information
accuracy, 63–68 asymmetry
accurate updating, 131–136 asymmetric outcomes, 44–48
Advance America: Black Swan, 108; avalanche prediction, 10–11
FDIC, 107; information strategy,
106–109; regulatory risk, 106–109; Bagehot, Walter, 17
stock price 2005–2006, 108–109 Bank for International Settlements,
“affi 225–229 nity” credit cards, 222
agenda control, 148–149 Bank of America, 77–78, 223,
algorithmic capital standards failure, 230–231
225–229 bank panics, 19–20
algorithms, 213–214, 216–221 Basel I, 225
American Express: causal relationships, Basel II: Bank for International
171–175; collateral damage, 181; Settlements, 225–226; capital ratios,
critical issues, 170–173; indexed 226; cost of implementing in Europe,
stock price performance 2007–2008, 227; FDIC, 228; judgment, 225–229;
176; information asymmetry, 139, macroprudential orientation, 227–228;
152–153; legal risk, 180–184; Peltzman, Sam, 228; “Th e Peltzman
lending, 171; litigation risk scenarios, eff ect,” 228; Seidman, Bill, 228
182; mapping, 169–171; Marcus v. Bayesian networks, 39
American Express, 181, 184; Bernanke, Ben, 19–20
MasterCard, 183–184; Monte Carlo biased information sources, 103–104
modeling, 180–184; no-surcharge Black, Fischer, 18
rules, 181; outcome, 175–177; output Black Hawk Down, 101
variable, 172; premium customer Black Swan: Advance America, 108;
base, 170; pricing power, 170; risk Countrywide, 72; defi nition, ix, x;
factors, 182–183; spending, 171; Discover Financial Services, 136;
stock price 1999–2000, 36; stock Fannie Mae, 31; information overload,
price 1999–2002, 52; stock price 108; judgment, 234–235; mapping,
2005–2006, 184 167; MasterCard, 167; MBNA, 224;
American Meteorological Society Monte Carlo modeling, 179;
(AMS), 9 Providian, 33–39, 51; Sallie Mae,
AMS. See American Meteorological 207–212; subprime mortgage loss,
Society 78–79
analysis, 64–66 Black-Scholes option pricing model, 18
