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Index actuaries, 38, 148 and, 194–95; duration mismatch and, adjusted trading range, 134–36 56–57; economic cycles and, 188; fi scal AIG (American International Group), 75 response per unit debt, 192–94; Altman, Edward I., 95 introduction to, 53–54; Lotka-Volterra American International Group (AIG), 75 model and, 188–89; narrow banking, approximations: binomial and normal 55–56; regulating, 150–51; rise and approximations, 110–11; fat-tailed history of, 54–55; static equilibria approximations, 111–13; Gaussian and, 189 approximations, 111, 225–26 bank runs, 21, 62, 64 ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional bargains, 167–68 Heteroskedasticity), 138–39 barter, 15 asset valuation, 35, 174 Basel Committee on Banking assignats, 46 Supervision, 63 Autoregressive Conditional Basel I, 2, 63, 74–75, 150–51 Heteroskedasticity (ARCH), 138–39 Basel II: banking regulation and, 63–64, 150–51; capital requirements bad money, 22–24 estimation equation and, 195; banking: boom and bust and, 57–60; contingent reserves and, 75; credit breakdown and regulation in, 62–64; rating and, 98, 114, 115 contingent reserves and, 74–75; credit Basel III, 78 orbits and, 60–62, 61f, 190–92; credit Bayes, Rev. Th omas, 10 rating and, 214–15; debt-fueled growth Bayes’ Rule, 10, 71, 85, 163–64, 203–4

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