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Pandora’s Risk: Uncertainty at the Core of Finance
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(c) 2025 Columbia University Press. All Rights reserved.
Page 7
Table of Contents
Page 9
Preface
Page 15
Acknowledgments
Page 17
List of Abbreviations
Page 21
1. Introduction
Page 34
2. The Ultimate Confidence Game
Page 48
3. Great Expectations
Page 60
4. Sustainable Debt
Page 73
5. The Midas Touch
Page 86
6. Safety in Numbers
Page 99
7. When God Changes Dice
Page 112
8. Credit-ability
Page 125
9. Insecuritization
Page 139
10. Risks in Value-at-Risk
Page 152
11. Resizing Risks
Page 165
12. Conclusions
Page 177
Appendix
Page 283
References
Page 295
Index
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List of Abbreviations (4)
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1. Introduction (13)
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2. The Ultimate Confidence Game (14)
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3. Great Expectations (12)
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4. Sustainable Debt (13)
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5. The Midas Touch (13)
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6. Safety in Numbers (13)
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7. When God Changes Dice (13)
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8. Credit-ability (13)
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9. Insecuritization (14)
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10. Risks in Value-at-Risk (13)
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11. Resizing Risks (13)
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12. Conclusions (12)
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Appendix (106)
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References (12)
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Index (10)
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Index actuaries, 38, 148 and, 194–95; duration mismatch and, adjusted trading range, 134–36 56–57; economic cycles and, 188; fi scal AIG (American International Group), 75 response per unit debt, 192–94; Altman, Edward I., 95 introduction to, 53–54; Lotka-Volterra American International Group (AIG), 75 model and, 188–89; narrow banking, approximations: binomial and normal 55–56; regulating, 150–51; rise and approximations, 110–11; fat-tailed history of, 54–55; static equilibria approximations, 111–13; Gaussian and, 189 approximations, 111, 225–26 bank runs, 21, 62, 64 ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional bargains, 167–68 Heteroskedasticity), 138–39 barter, 15 asset valuation, 35, 174 Basel Committee on Banking assignats, 46 Supervision, 63 Autoregressive Conditional Basel I, 2, 63, 74–75, 150–51 Heteroskedasticity (ARCH), 138–39 Basel II: banking regulation and, 63–64, 150–51; capital requirements bad money, 22–24 estimation equation and, 195; banking: boom and bust and, 57–60; contingent reserves and, 75; credit breakdown and regulation in, 62–64; rating and, 98, 114, 115 contingent reserves and, 74–75; credit Basel III, 78 orbits and, 60–62, 61f, 190–92; credit Bayes, Rev. Th omas, 10 rating and, 214–15; debt-fueled growth Bayes’ Rule, 10, 71, 85, 163–64, 203–4
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Pandora’s Risk: Uncertainty at the Core of Finance
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(c) 2025 Columbia University Press. All Rights reserved.
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Pandora’s Risk: Uncertainty at the Core of Finance
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(c) 2025 Columbia University Press. All Rights reserved.
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