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More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places (Updated and Expanded) resources

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CONTENTS xiii 20 Staying Ahead of the Curve: Linking Creative Destruction and Expectations 137 Losing Pride 137 Goldilocks Expectations: Too Cold, Too Hot, Just Right 138 Out with the Old, In with the New 139 The Mind Makes a Promise That the Body Can’t Fill 141 Expectations and Innovation 142 21 Is There a Fly in Your Portfolio? What an Accelerating Rate of Industry Change Means for Investors 143 Fruit Flies and Futility 143 Speed Trap? 144 Investor Evolution 147 22 All the Right Moves: How to Balance the Long Term with the Short Term 148 Managing for the Long Term 148 Deep Blue’s Lessons 149 Strategies for Winners 149 Strategy as Simple Rules 151 23 Survival of the Fittest: Fitness Landscapes and Competitive Advantage 153 A Peek at Another Peak 153 Fitness Landscapes 154 Look Before You Leap? 156 Tools of the Trade-Off 157 24 You’ll Meet a Bad Fate If You Extrapolate: The Folly of Using Average P/Es 159 Social Versus Security 159 Nonstationarity and Historical P/Es 160 Why the Past May Not Be Prologue 161 Bounded Parameters 163 Unpacking the (Mental) Baggage 164 40918-FM-00i-004 r1.indd xiii 40918-FM-00i-004 r1.indd xiii 8/7/07 12:44:40 PM8/7/07 12:44:40 PM

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