I
PART
GLOBAL WARMING
THE SUBJECT OF global warming makes people hot under the collar.
Is it happening? Almost surely, according to the scientifi c consensus.
Is it man made? Again, almost surely. Yet people who don’t argue
about other scientifi c consensuses do argue about this one.
Even whether to call it “global warming” or “global climate
change” generates agitated debate. Some people say “global climate
change” is more accurate because some regions will cool and others
warm. Others argue that such a neutral term is less likely to generate
action and that “warming” is more apt because on average, the cli-
mate is expected to warm.
The essays here ask whether action is merited, what action is
merited, and how nations can credibly commit to act.
Nobel Laureate Thomas Schelling distinguishes what is certain
from what is uncertain and argues that the uncertainties do not jus-
tify inaction and the certainties justify urgent action to develop tech-
nologies to combat and limit warming.
Nobel Laureate Kenneth Arrow takes a critical look at the recent
Stern report and the question of whether the benefi ts of serious ac-
tion justify the costs. Many have criticized the Stern report because it
doesn’t discount the future benefi now to limit global ts of acting
warming later. In this essay, however, Arrow argues that the call to